This First Assessment and Feasibility Report is prepared for the Termiz Forest Nursery under Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise (Surxondaryo davlat o‘rmon xo‘jaligi tasarrufidagi Termiz ko‘chatxonasi) in accordance with the Technical Disposition for the Design, Upgrading, and Preparation of Forest Nurseries in Uzbekistan under the RESILAND CA+ Nursery Framework (RNF).

The report has been developed as an integral component of the consultancy services under Contract No. LRP/IC/08, titled:

“International Consultant to Provide Technical Expertise for the Design, Upgrading, and Preparation of Nine (9) Forestry Nurseries.”

Within this framework, Mr. İsmail Belen, International Consultant, conducted a field mission to the Termiz Forest Nursery located within the administrative boundaries of Termiz district, Surkhandarya Region, on Friday, 6 February 2026. The mission included site inspection, technical evaluation of existing nursery operations, assessment of environmental and infrastructural conditions, and consultations with the Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise.

This First Assessment and Feasibility Report has been finalized in full compliance with contractual obligations and in coordination with:

The Agency for Forest and Green Area Expansion and Combating Desertification under the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change of the Republic of Uzbekistan;
Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise.

The completion of this document formally concludes Phase 4 – Assessment and Feasibility for the Termiz Forest Nursery within the RESILAND CA+ framework.

Subject to approval by the RESILAND CA+ Project Implementation Unit (PIU), the project will proceed to the subsequent implementation stages:

• Phase 5 – Nursery Design: Preparation of Detailed Nursery Engineering Designs
• Phase 6 – Technical Specifications & BoQ: Development of Technical Specifications and Bills of Quantities
• Phase 7 – Validation & Training: Second Field Mission for Technical Validation and Capacity Building

The present report establishes the technical, environmental, and institutional basis required for structured upgrading and climate-resilient development of the Termiz Forest Nursery within the southern lowland conditions of Surkhandarya Region.

1. Introduction, Context and Policy Framework

1.1 Strategic Positioning of the Termiz Forest Nursery within RESILAND CA+

The Termiz Forest Nursery under Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise (Surxondaryo davlat o‘rmon xo‘jaligi tasarrufidagi Termiz ko‘chatxonasi), located within the administrative boundaries of Termiz district, Surkhandarya Region, is one of the nine (9) priority state forestry nurseries selected under the Uzbekistan Resilient Landscapes Restoration Project (RESILAND CA+).

The inclusion of Termiz among the nine target nurseries reflects its strategic importance in addressing a critical structural gap in Uzbekistan’s southern lowland restoration systems: the limited availability of high-quality, heat-tolerant, and salinity-resilient planting material adapted to the extreme continental climate and irrigated alluvial landscapes of the lower Amu Darya basin.

Unlike foothill nurseries serving erosion-prone mountainous systems, the Termiz Forest Nursery operates within a flat alluvial plain characterized by:

Extreme summer heat exposure
High evapotranspiration rates
Irrigation-dependent land use systems
Salinity-sensitive soils
Shallow groundwater influence in localized areas

Under RESILAND CA+, nurseries are not treated as auxiliary facilities supporting seasonal planting campaigns. They are conceived as core public production infrastructure forming the biological and operational backbone of large-scale landscape restoration and climate adaptation strategies.

Within this framework, the Termiz Forest Nursery contributes directly to the Project Development Objective (PDO) of bringing 280,000 hectares under sustainable landscape management by supplying climate-adapted planting material specifically suited to lowland agro-ecological systems of southern Uzbekistan.

The nursery’s strategic role aligns with two core project components:

• Sub-component 1.1 – Strengthen Institutions and Policies
Supporting institutional capacity building, standardization of nursery operations, improvement of seed and planting material quality control systems, and alignment with national forestry regulatory reforms.

• Sub-component 2.1 – Enhance Tree-based Landscape Restoration and Management
Ensuring the production and supply of site-matched, climate-resilient planting material required for:

Shelterbelt establishment in irrigated agricultural landscapes
Agroforestry systems in lowland farming zones
Rehabilitation of degraded and salinity-affected lands
Protective green belts in high-temperature environments
Urban and peri-urban greening initiatives in Termiz district
Ecosystem service-oriented restoration interventions

Within the RESILAND CA+ results chain, the Termiz Forest Nursery functions as:

• A lowland climate-adaptation production hub tailored to extreme heat and irrigation-dependent conditions;
• A risk-reduction mechanism minimizing plantation failure rates in salinity-prone and high-evaporation environments through improved species-site matching and seedling quality control;
• A scalable production and experimental platform supporting regionally differentiated restoration strategies across Surkhandarya Region, particularly within the lower Amu Darya basin context.

In this sense, the Termiz Forest Nursery is positioned not merely as a production site, but as a strategic lowland model nursery capable of addressing the specific climatic and edaphic challenges of southern Uzbekistan.

1.2 Alignment with the Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy and National Environmental Priorities

The Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy (Presidential Decree No. UP-158, 11 September 2023) establishes binding national targets under Articles 67–71 concerning afforestation, expansion of green areas, climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation, desertification control, and restoration of degraded lands, including territories influenced by the Aral Sea crisis.

Key quantified national commitments include:

• Planting 200 million seedlings annually;
• Increasing national green area coverage to 30 percent;
• Expanding total forest area to 6.1 million hectares;
• Establishing 600,000 hectares of climate-protective green zones;
• Restoring 2.6 million hectares in the Aral Sea region;
• Increasing annual tree and shrub seed harvesting by 840 tonnes.

Achieving these targets requires a permanent, technically robust, and ecologically differentiated nursery system capable of producing large volumes of climate-adapted planting material suited to Uzbekistan’s diverse ecological zones — including irrigated lowland plains exposed to extreme summer heat, high evapotranspiration, and salinity-sensitive soil conditions.

The Termiz Forest Nursery under Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise, located within Termiz district in the lower Amu Darya basin, directly supports the implementation of:

• Article 67 – Expansion of the “Yashil Makon” National Project, particularly in southern urban and peri-urban lowland environments;
• Article 68 – Forest area expansion and establishment of protective forest belts, especially shelterbelts in irrigated agricultural landscapes;
• Article 70 – Climate change adaptation and desertification control, with specific relevance to heat-stressed, irrigation-dependent, and salinity-prone lowland territories;
• Article 71 – Biodiversity conservation and cultivation of economically and ecologically valuable species, including heat- and drought-tolerant species adapted to continental desert and semi-desert conditions.

Unlike nurseries serving mountainous or erosion-prone foothill systems, the Termiz Forest Nursery operates within a flat alluvial plain characterized by extreme summer temperatures, irrigation dependency, and potential soil salinity pressures. Its strategic function is therefore oriented toward producing planting material suitable for:

Shelterbelt establishment in irrigated agricultural zones;
Rehabilitation of degraded and salinity-affected lands;
Climate-protective green infrastructure in high-temperature urban environments;
Lowland agroforestry systems;
Landscape stabilization within the southern Amu Darya basin context.

Through structured upgrading and climate-resilient production systems, the Termiz Forest Nursery translates national afforestation targets into biologically viable, quality-controlled, and site-matched seedling production aligned with the ecological realities of Surkhandarya’s lowland environment.

In this manner, the nursery serves as an operational instrument for implementing the Uzbekistan–2030 Strategy within the southernmost climatic zone of the country.

1.3 District Context: Termiz District (Termiz tumani), Surxondaryo Region

Official administrative data were accessed in February 2026 through the Government Portal of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The following official sources were consulted:

• Termiz District Administration (Surxondaryo viloyati Termiz tumani hokimligi)
https://gov.uz/oz/tertu

• Surxondaryo Regional Administration (Surxondaryo viloyati hokimligi)
https://gov.uz/oz/surxondaryo

• Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise (Surxondaryo davlat o‘rmon xo‘jaligi)
(Operating under the Agency for Forest and Green Area Expansion and Combating Desertification)

Termiz (Termiz) is the administrative capital of Surxondaryo Region in the southern part of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Administratively, the city has the status of a district-level city and functions as the principal political, economic, and logistical center of the region. According to data reported by the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics, the population of Termiz was approximately 182,800 inhabitants in 2021.

The total administrative area of Surxondaryo Region is approximately 20,100 km², which corresponds to about 2,010,000 hectares (ha). The region had an estimated population of over 2.7 million inhabitants in 2022, according to official statistical data. Surxondaryo Region is located in the southernmost part of Uzbekistan, bordering Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Qashqadaryo Region, which gives the region strategic geopolitical importance.

Geographically, Termiz is situated on the right bank of the Amu Darya River, which forms the natural border between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. The city therefore occupies a strategically important cross-border location, functioning as Uzbekistan’s principal southern gateway for trade, transport, and regional cooperation. Approximately 12 km east of the city, the Afghanistan–Uzbekistan Friendship Bridge crosses the Amu Darya River and connects Termiz with the Afghan border town of Hairatan, serving as the main road and railway crossing between the two countries.

Historically, Termiz is considered one of the oldest urban settlements in Central Asia, with archaeological evidence indicating urban development in the region since at least the 3rd century BCE. The ancient settlement of Old Termiz, located near the modern city along the Amu Darya River, was associated with Hellenistic urban development during the period of Alexander the Great and later became an important Buddhist cultural center along the Silk Road. In subsequent centuries, Termiz evolved into a significant Islamic cultural and scholarly center, producing prominent scholars such as Imam al-Tirmidhi and Hakim al-Tirmidhi.

In the modern period, Termiz functions as a regional administrative, economic, and educational hub. The city hosts several higher education institutions, including Termiz State University, the Termiz Branch of the Tashkent Medical Academy, the Termiz Technical University, and the Termiz Branch of the Tashkent State Agrarian University, which contribute to regional human capital development.

Climatically, Termiz lies within an arid continental climate zone characterized by long, extremely hot summers and relatively short, mild winters. Summer temperatures frequently exceed 40°C, while annual precipitation averages around 160 mm, most of which occurs during winter and early spring. These climatic conditions create high evapotranspiration rates and strong dependence on irrigation systems, which are critical considerations for agricultural and forestry nursery development in the region.

Overall, Termiz represents a strategically important regional center with strong transport connectivity, cross-border logistical significance, and institutional capacity, making it a key location for environmental restoration programs, forestry development initiatives, and climate-resilient nursery modernization projects within Surxondaryo Region.

The Termiz Forest Nursery is located within the administrative boundaries of Termiz district, Surkhandarya Region, in the southernmost part of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

Surxondaryo Region occupies the extreme southern part of Uzbekistan and borders Afghanistan to the south and Tajikistan to the east, increasing its strategic ecological and geopolitical importance within national landscape restoration and climate adaptation frameworks.

Unlike mountainous districts in northern Surxondaryo, Termiz district is characterized by flat alluvial lowlands within the lower Amu Darya basin. The dominant land-use pattern consists of:

Irrigation-dependent agricultural systems
Shelterbelt corridors
Peri-urban green zones
Semi-arid lowland ecosystems

The district landscape reflects:

Flat topography with minimal slope variation
High summer temperatures (often exceeding 40°C)
Elevated evapotranspiration rates
Salinity risks associated with irrigation-dependent soils

This lowland irrigation-supported setting clearly differentiates Termiz from foothill or erosion-sensitive districts elsewhere in Surxondaryo Region. Accordingly, nursery development strategies must prioritize:

Heat resilience
Water-use efficiency
Salinity monitoring and drainage control
Rather than slope stabilization or watershed engineering

Supporting International Context

According to the World Bank – Uzbekistan Resilient Landscapes Restoration Project (RESILAND CA+) documentation:

Project Appraisal Document:
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099100009262217553/pdf/P174135081e0ad0040a7b409e0f5c4a32c9.pdf

Implementation Status Report:
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099092823163533223/pdf/P1741350bf921908108f320c790673fc9c7.pdf

The project aims to bring 280,000 hectares under sustainable landscape management, requiring regionally adapted nursery systems capable of producing climate-resilient planting material.

According to FAO AQUASTAT – Uzbekistan Country Profile, irrigation accounts for approximately 90% of total freshwater withdrawals in Uzbekistan, highlighting structural irrigation dependency in southern lowland regions such as Termiz:

FAO AQUASTAT – Uzbekistan Profile:
https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/countries-and-basins/country-profiles/country/UZB

FAO regional forestry and climate adaptation initiatives in Central Asia also emphasize climate-resilient nursery systems for arid and semi-arid environments:

https://www.fao.org/home/en

1.3.1 Geographic Location and Elevation Profile

The Termiz Forest Nursery is located within the administrative boundaries of Termiz district at approximately 37°18’43” N – 67°23’15” E, at an elevation of around 310 meters above sea level.

The site lies on a flat lowland plain with minimal topographic variation. The terrain is generally even and suitable for structured nursery layout, internal circulation, and installation of irrigation systems without significant earthworks.

The surrounding area is characterized by irrigated agricultural land and open lowland landscapes. The open setting increases exposure to direct solar radiation and seasonal wind movement, which must be considered in nursery zoning and layout planning.

Due to the flat relief, natural drainage is limited. Therefore, careful surface leveling and basic drainage planning will be important to avoid localized water stagnation during irrigation cycles.

At 310 meters elevation, the site belongs to the southern lowland climatic zone of Uzbekistan. Compared to higher-altitude districts, this elevation results in higher summer temperature exposure and lower frost intensity in winter. These conditions influence seedling production cycles, irrigation scheduling, and shade requirements.

Overall, the geographic and elevation profile of the Termiz Forest Nursery supports operational feasibility, while requiring attention to heat exposure and water management during detailed design stages.

1.3.2 Climate and Temperature Regime

Termiz district is characterized by a continental lowland climate with extreme summer heat influence, typical of the southernmost part of Uzbekistan. Unlike foothill areas at higher elevation, Termiz lies at approximately 310 meters above sea level, resulting in stronger heat accumulation and prolonged high-temperature exposure during the summer season.

The regional climatic norms indicate the following approximate parameters:

Mean annual temperature: 18–20°C
Average July temperature: 32–36°C
Peak summer temperatures: frequently exceed 42–45°C
Average January temperature: 3°C to +7°C
Absolute winter minima: occasionally below –8°C

Annual precipitation averages approximately 130–200 mm, significantly lower than foothill districts. Rainfall is highly seasonal and concentrated in:

Late autumn
Winter
Early spring

The summer period is long, hot, and dry, characterized by:

Intense solar radiation
Very high evapotranspiration rates
Low relative humidity
Extended heat stress periods from May to September

These conditions generate a pronounced seasonal water deficit during the main vegetation period.

Given the prevailing climatic conditions in Termiz, nursery establishment and operation require climate-adaptive planning. The following aspects are particularly important:

Irrigation Dependency
Seedling production is fully dependent on controlled irrigation throughout the growing season. Natural precipitation does not support summer growth cycles.
Heat Mitigation and Shade Management
Protective shade structures are essential to reduce direct solar exposure, particularly during peak summer temperatures exceeding 40°C.
Species Selection Strategy
Priority should be given to heat- and drought-tolerant species adapted to lowland continental and semi-arid environments, including species with moderate salinity tolerance.
Evaporation Control Measures
Windbreak establishment and surface management practices are recommended to reduce evaporation losses and stabilize microclimatic conditions.
Production System Approach
Containerized (closed-root) systems are advisable in high-temperature environments to improve water-use efficiency and reduce transplant shock.
Efficient Irrigation Technologies
Drip or micro-sprinkler systems are preferable to minimize evaporative loss and improve uniform moisture control under extreme heat conditions.

In summary, Termiz’s lowland climatic regime imposes significant summer heat and water stress on nursery operations. However, with appropriate irrigation management, shading systems, and climate-adapted production methods, these constraints can be effectively managed to ensure stable and resilient seedling production.

1.3.3 Soil Characteristics

Field observations confirm that the Termiz Forest Nursery area is situated on a flat, low-gradient alluvial terrain directly adjacent to an operational irrigation canal. The canal provides seasonal surface water supply and represents a structurally advantageous source for nursery production. At the same time, its proximity introduces drainage and shallow groundwater considerations that must be fully integrated into the technical design framework.

The nursery parcel is bordered by an open earthen canal system exhibiting moderate flow conditions during the site visit. Canal banks show visible sediment deposition, localized vegetation encroachment, and minor bank erosion in certain sections. These conditions confirm that surface water availability is structurally present; however, water abstraction cannot rely on informal methods. Engineered intake, pumping, and filtration units will be required to prevent sediment load and suspended particles from entering irrigation infrastructure, particularly if modern drip or micro-sprinkler systems are introduced.

Although the overall terrain is flat, field inspection indicates slight micro-depressions, uneven leveling in production areas, and shallow informal drainage cuts. In flat alluvial systems, even minor grading inconsistencies may lead to localized water stagnation, non-uniform irrigation distribution, and salinity concentration zones under high evaporation conditions. Prior to full-scale modernization, precision laser-level grading should be implemented to ensure hydraulic uniformity and controlled surface drainage.

The nursery perimeter includes mature pine shelterbelts (likely Pinus spp.) functioning as established windbreak systems. These stands provide wind protection, reduce evapotranspiration stress, and create localized shade microclimates beneficial for seedling development. However, understory management appears limited, litter accumulation is significant, and small internal drainage channels are visible within tree rows. These shelterbelts constitute a strategic structural asset and should be retained and rehabilitated, not removed. Selective thinning and integration into drainage planning will enhance their functional contribution.

Surface soil conditions indicate compaction in trafficked zones, low visible organic matter incorporation, surface crust formation, and dry-season hardpan behavior. While no clear evidence of active salt crusting is visible, the absence of surface salinity does not eliminate the risk of subsoil salinity or capillary salt rise under irrigation conditions. Comprehensive laboratory testing (pH, EC, SAR, texture, groundwater depth) remains mandatory before confirming substrate suitability and irrigation design parameters.

Existing production plots display structured bed layouts reflecting legacy nursery use, including labeled experimental plots and narrow spacing typical of traditional open-field systems. The site is therefore operational but technically outdated. The structural organization demonstrates institutional continuity; however, spacing, irrigation typology, and substrate management are not aligned with modern, water-efficient nursery standards. The parcel is clearly suitable for upgrading rather than relocation.

Access conditions include direct unpaved road connectivity, adjacent overhead power lines, and visible basic pumping structures. These elements significantly reduce baseline infrastructure requirements for modernization. Nevertheless, current road surface conditions indicate seasonal mud risk and potential constraints for heavy equipment access. Internal circulation routes and surface stabilization must therefore be incorporated into Phase 5 design planning.

In summary, Termiz Forest Nursery presents key structural strengths, including reliable canal water access, flat terrain suitable for mechanization, existing shelterbelts, and an established operational layout. Identified risks include drainage inefficiency, soil compaction, potential subsoil salinity, surface crusting under high evaporation, and sediment intake from the open canal system.

The site is technically suitable for modernization and expansion under RESILAND CA+, provided that precision grading is implemented, engineered drainage systems are installed, soil and water quality testing confirm salinity status, modern irrigation systems replace flood irrigation practices, and existing shelterbelts are strategically integrated into the upgraded master layout.

1.3.4 Landform and Terrain Conditions

The terrain of Termiz district and its surrounding areas is defined by a lowland alluvial plain system within the lower Amu Darya basin, rather than a foothill–agricultural transition landscape. Unlike gently sloping foothill environments, Termiz is characterized by predominantly flat to very low-gradient terrain, formed through long-term fluvial deposition and irrigation-driven land transformation.

According to FAO AQUASTAT country documentation for Uzbekistan, the southern lowland basins are structurally dependent on irrigation-supported agriculture, with landforms largely shaped by alluvial sediment accumulation and engineered canal systems rather than natural slope dynamics
(FAO AQUASTAT – Uzbekistan Country Profile:
https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/countries-and-basins/country-profiles/country/UZB)

The dominant landform characteristics of the Termiz lowland zone include:

• Flat alluvial surfaces with minimal natural slope
• Extensive irrigation canal networks integrated into cultivated plains
• Low micro-relief variability
• Agricultural and shelterbelt-dominated landscape structure

Regional irrigation modernization assessments emphasize that in southern Uzbekistan’s lowland districts, agricultural productivity depends heavily on engineered drainage and controlled irrigation, as natural runoff capacity is limited due to minimal slope gradients
(World Bank – Irrigation Modernization and Sector Review, Uzbekistan:
https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P178340)

Slope gradients in the Termiz Forest Nursery area are typically:

• Below 2% across most production parcels
• Characterized by localized micro-depressions rather than structured incline
• Influenced primarily by historical leveling practices and canal alignment

These terrain conditions have important operational implications. While flat terrain provides advantages for mechanization, structured zoning, and infrastructure installation, it also increases dependency on engineered surface drainage systems. Unlike foothill systems where gravity-assisted runoff reduces stagnation risk, lowland alluvial plains are more vulnerable to localized waterlogging and salinity concentration if leveling and drainage are not precisely managed.

The World Bank Country Climate and Development Report for Uzbekistan notes that southern irrigated lowland systems are increasingly exposed to climate-induced water stress and evaporation pressure, reinforcing the importance of irrigation efficiency and drainage performance in flat basin environments
(World Bank – Country Climate and Development Report: Uzbekistan:
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40382)

For nursery establishment in Termiz’s lowland environment, terrain conditions provide:

• High suitability for mechanized nursery operations
• Feasibility of structured production zoning with minimal earthworks
• Ease of irrigation network installation under controlled grading

However, these advantages are balanced by:

• Increased dependency on artificial drainage systems
• Elevated risk of salinity accumulation under high evaporation
• Requirement for precise land leveling to prevent irrigation imbalance

Wind exposure in the Termiz lowland agricultural landscape is generally moderate to seasonally strong, particularly in open parcels. Unlike foothill areas where terrain variation provides partial buffering, flat plains require deliberate shelterbelt planning to reduce evapotranspiration losses, soil surface desiccation, and seedling stress. International guidance for arid and semi-arid land management emphasizes the importance of windbreak systems in flat irrigated landscapes
(FAO – Climate and land management guidance for arid regions:
https://www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture/en/)

In summary, Termiz’s terrain is defined by a flat, irrigation-dependent alluvial plain landscape within the lower Amu Darya basin, offering operational advantages in terms of mechanization and layout efficiency, while requiring engineered drainage design, precise leveling, salinity monitoring, and integrated irrigation management to ensure long-term nursery sustainability under semi-arid climatic conditions.

1.3.5 Water Availability and Hydrological Context

The hydrological regime of Termiz district is defined by its location within the lower Amu Darya basin, operating under a fully irrigation-dependent lowland system rather than a mountain-influenced foothill regime. Unlike upstream or foothill districts where runoff dynamics contribute directly to local inflows, water availability in Termiz is primarily determined by regulated river abstraction, canal distribution networks, and engineered pumping systems.

According to FAO AQUASTAT, Uzbekistan exhibits extremely high irrigation dependency, with agriculture accounting for the overwhelming majority of total freshwater withdrawals. This structural reliance is particularly pronounced in downstream lowland districts such as Termiz, where natural precipitation is insufficient to sustain production systems without managed surface water delivery
FAO AQUASTAT – Uzbekistan Country Profile:
https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/countries-and-basins/country-profiles/country/UZB

Within the lower Amu Darya system, irrigation canals distribute regulated surface water across flat agricultural plains. At the district level, operational water availability depends on allocation scheduling, canal maintenance, sediment management, and pumping reliability rather than natural flow variability. World Bank irrigation modernization documentation confirms that in southern Uzbekistan, water supply reliability is closely linked to infrastructure performance and basin-level allocation management
World Bank – Irrigation Modernization Project, Uzbekistan:
https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P178340

Compared to foothill districts, Termiz is more exposed to:

• Downstream allocation constraints during peak irrigation demand periods
• Accumulation of return flows and salinity concentration in low-gradient systems
• Groundwater table fluctuations driven by canal seepage and irrigation intensity
• High evapotranspiration-driven water demand during summer months

The World Bank Country Climate and Development Report for Uzbekistan highlights that southern lowland regions are increasingly affected by rising temperatures and intensified evapotranspiration, which amplify irrigation demand and place additional stress on basin-level water resources
World Bank – Country Climate and Development Report: Uzbekistan:
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40382

As a consequence, in Termiz:

• Surface water availability is structurally dependent on upstream allocation decisions;
• Canal discharge reliability may vary seasonally;
• Groundwater levels may rise locally due to seepage in poorly drained flat terrain;
• Water quality may deteriorate under high evaporation and concentration effects;
• Summer supply reliability is sensitive to both allocation scheduling and pumping infrastructure performance.

For nursery establishment in an irrigation-dependent lowland basin, hydrological planning must prioritize infrastructure control, storage buffering, and water-use efficiency, rather than relying solely on physical proximity to a canal.

Key technical considerations include:

• Verification of seasonal canal discharge stability and allocation guarantees;
• Assessment of groundwater dynamics and feasibility of supplementary abstraction where appropriate;
• Installation of buffer reservoirs or regulated storage ponds to mitigate short-term supply interruptions;
• Adoption of high-efficiency irrigation systems (drip or micro-sprinkler) to reduce evaporative losses under extreme summer heat;
• Implementation of systematic water quality monitoring protocols, including electrical conductivity (EC), pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), and mineral composition;
• Integration of engineered drainage systems to prevent waterlogging and secondary salinity formation within nursery compartments.

In conclusion, Termiz’s hydrological environment is defined by a regulated, downstream, irrigation-dependent basin system, exposed to allocation variability, evaporation pressure, and salinity risks typical of low-gradient alluvial plains. Sustainable nursery development therefore requires integrated water management planning, allocation reliability assessment, sediment control, storage buffering, and continuous hydrological monitoring, aligned with lower Amu Darya basin conditions.

1.3.6 Environmental Risks and Climate Stressors

Key environmental pressures in Termiz district and its surrounding lowland irrigation-dependent landscape differ significantly from foothill environments and are primarily linked to extreme summer heat, high evapotranspiration, flat terrain drainage constraints, and irrigation-driven salinity dynamics. As a downstream alluvial plain within the lower Amu Darya basin, Termiz is exposed to structural environmental stressors typical of semi-arid, low-gradient systems.

The dominant environmental pressures include:

• Severe seasonal water deficit during prolonged hot and dry summers
• Extreme heat stress, with temperatures frequently exceeding 42–45°C
• High evapotranspiration rates, intensifying irrigation demand
• Secondary soil salinity risk associated with irrigation return flows and inadequate drainage
• Shallow groundwater fluctuation in poorly drained flat parcels
• Surface crust formation and soil compaction under repeated irrigation cycles
• Downstream water allocation sensitivity, particularly during peak agricultural demand

Unlike foothill districts where slope-induced erosion is a primary concern, Termiz’s environmental vulnerability is more closely associated with salinity accumulation, waterlogging in micro-depressions, and evaporation-driven soil degradation.

These environmental dynamics generate structural demand for:

• Heat- and drought-tolerant tree species adapted to lowland continental semi-arid conditions
• Species with moderate salinity tolerance, particularly for irrigated shelterbelt systems
• Efficient irrigation technologies to reduce evaporative losses
• Engineered drainage systems to prevent salt accumulation and shallow groundwater rise
• Windbreak reinforcement in open plains to reduce evapotranspiration and seedling desiccation
• Soil improvement programs focused on organic matter enhancement and structure stabilization
• Climate-resilient green infrastructure aimed at reducing urban and peri-urban heat stress

The World Bank Country Climate and Development Report for Uzbekistan highlights that southern lowland regions are increasingly exposed to rising temperatures and intensified evaporation, which amplify irrigation demand and salinity risk
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40382

Similarly, FAO guidance for arid and semi-arid land management emphasizes the importance of integrated water efficiency, salinity control, and wind protection systems in flat irrigated landscapes
https://www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture/en/

In the context of Termiz’s lower Amu Darya basin setting, environmental management priorities are therefore centered on:

• Salinity monitoring and drainage control
• Water-use efficiency under extreme heat
• Evaporation mitigation strategies
• Heat-resilient landscape design and shelterbelt integration

rather than erosion-control planning or slope-adaptive land engineering typical of foothill districts.

In summary, Termiz represents a heat-exposed, irrigation-dependent lowland system where sustainable nursery development must be aligned with salinity management, high-temperature adaptation, and water efficiency optimization to ensure long-term landscape resilience.

1.3.7 Implications for Species Selection and Nursery Typology

Given the semi-arid lowland conditions and the irrigation-dependent agricultural environment of Termiz district, nursery production should prioritize species and systems adapted to extreme heat stress, prolonged seasonal water deficit, salinity exposure, and elevated evapotranspiration rates characteristic of the lower Amu Darya basin.

Nursery production in Termiz should therefore prioritize:

• Heat- and drought-tolerant species capable of maintaining growth under prolonged summer temperatures exceeding 42–45°C
• Species adapted to alluvial lowland soils, including those with moderate salinity tolerance
• Wind-tolerant species suitable for open plain agricultural landscapes
• Fast-growing shelterbelt species for agricultural field protection, canal-side stabilization, and microclimate regulation
• Multipurpose agroforestry-compatible stock, integrating economic and ecological functions within irrigated farming systems

Given Termiz’s low-elevation setting (approximately 310 m above sea level), frost tolerance is of secondary relevance compared to heat resilience, drought tolerance, salinity management, and water-use efficiency, which represent the primary ecological selection criteria.

Nursery production systems in Termiz should integrate:

• Structured open-field production areas for hardy, lowland-adapted species capable of tolerating intense solar radiation
• Containerized (closed-root) production blocks to improve survival under high-temperature and irrigation-dependent conditions
• Hardening zones designed to acclimatize seedlings to strong radiation, dry air, and wind exposure prior to outplanting
• High-efficiency irrigation systems, preferably drip or micro-sprinkler systems, to reduce evaporative losses and optimize moisture control
• Composting and substrate preparation units to enhance soil structure, organic matter content, and water retention capacity
• Reinforced windbreak installations within nursery compartments to stabilize microclimatic conditions and reduce evapotranspiration stress
• Integrated drainage planning to prevent waterlogging and secondary salinity formation in flat production blocks

In Termiz’s lower Amu Darya basin context, nursery design must therefore emphasize heat adaptation, salinity control, irrigation efficiency, soil conditioning, microclimate stabilization, and precise species–site matching, ensuring alignment with the environmental realities of a high-temperature, irrigation-supported lowland landscape.

1.3.8. Integrated Technical Conclusion

Termiz district presents a technically feasible and environmentally strategic lowland environment for forest nursery establishment. Its biophysical context is shaped by its location within the lower Amu Darya basin, characterized by semi-arid climatic conditions and full irrigation dependency, rather than foothill slope dynamics.

According to FAO AQUASTAT, southern Uzbekistan falls within a high irrigation-dependency zone, where agriculture accounts for the overwhelming majority of freshwater withdrawals. This underscores the structural importance of efficient water management, allocation reliability, and drainage performance in downstream districts such as Termiz.

FAO AQUASTAT – Uzbekistan Country Profile:
https://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/countries-and-basins/country-profiles/country/UZB

Climatically, the World Bank Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Uzbekistan highlights that southern lowland regions are increasingly exposed to:

• Rising temperatures
• Increasing evapotranspiration rates
• Growing seasonal water stress
• Heightened climate variability affecting irrigation reliability

World Bank – Country Climate and Development Report (Uzbekistan):
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/40382

Within the lower Amu Darya basin, irrigation networks and canal systems regulate water distribution across flat agricultural plains. Infrastructure performance, seasonal allocation management, sediment control, and pumping efficiency are decisive in maintaining production stability, as emphasized in World Bank irrigation modernization assessments.

World Bank – Irrigation Modernization Project (Uzbekistan):
https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P178340

Based on these verified sources, Termiz’s biophysical characteristics include:

• Low-elevation setting (~310 m a.s.l.) within a flat alluvial plain
• Annual precipitation approximately 130–200 mm, concentrated in winter and early spring (FAO AQUASTAT)
• Extreme summer temperatures frequently exceeding 42–45°C (World Bank CCDR)
• Very high evapotranspiration and structural irrigation dependency
• Alluvial irrigated soils with elevated secondary salinity risk under inadequate drainage
• Minimal natural slope, requiring engineered surface and subsurface drainage
• Higher salinity and waterlogging vulnerability compared to foothill districts, but lower erosion exposure

From a technical perspective, Termiz provides operational advantages in mechanization feasibility, layout efficiency, and irrigation network installation due to its flat terrain. However, long-term resilience depends on strengthened salinity control, drainage engineering, and climate-adaptive water management planning.

According to World Bank irrigation modernization analysis, infrastructure reliability, water-use efficiency, and drainage performance remain decisive in maintaining soil productivity and mitigating climate-amplified water stress in irrigation-dependent plains.

https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P178340

Therefore, nursery establishment in Termiz should incorporate:

• High-efficiency irrigation systems (drip or micro-sprinkler) to optimize water use under extreme evaporation conditions;
• Engineered surface and subsurface drainage systems to prevent salinity accumulation and waterlogging;
• Systematic soil testing and organic matter enhancement programs;
• Microclimate control measures, including shade systems and windbreak installations;
• Continuous water quality monitoring (EC, pH, TDS, mineral composition);
• Species-site matching prioritizing heat-, drought-, and moderate salinity-tolerant species adapted to semi-arid lowland environments.

Based on FAO and World Bank assessments, Termiz’s lowland basin environment is characterized by structural irrigation dependency, increasing climate stress, evaporation pressure, and salinity vulnerability, rather than slope-induced erosion dynamics. With properly engineered irrigation efficiency, drainage control, and microclimate stabilization systems, the area is technically suitable for climate-smart nursery development aligned with international best practice and RESILAND CA+ restoration objectives.

The key determinants of long-term success in Termiz are:

• Water-use efficiency
• Heat and drought resilience
• Salinity management and drainage performance
• Infrastructure reliability
• Climate-resilient species selection

Thus, while requiring salinity-conscious and heat-adaptive design measures, Termiz remains a viable and strategically important location for nursery establishment under a modernized, resilience-oriented development framework.

1.4 Field Mission and Site Assessment Findings

1.4.1. Visit to Nursery Area

Within the scope of the RESILAND CA+ field mission to Surxondaryo Region (Surxondaryo viloyati), a site visit was conducted to the Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise (Surxondaryo davlat o‘rmon xo‘jaligi) and its Termiz Forest Nursery (Termiz ko‘chatxonasi) located in Termiz district (Termiz tumani).

The mission aimed to assess the current operational status of the nursery, evaluate existing infrastructure conditions, verify site-specific physical characteristics, and review available technical documentation and layout information provided by the Enterprise.

The delegation met with the responsible representatives of Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise, who provided detailed information on the Termiz Forest Nursery, including its:

• Geographic location within Termiz district
• Total operational area
• Functional layout components
• Existing production blocks
• Species portfolio
• Irrigation and canal connectivity
• Current operational constraints and future development intentions

During the visit, the assessment was supported by officially prepared and signed documents, including:

• Nursery layout sketches and parcel boundaries
• Area measurements
• Canal alignment and water intake points
• Existing infrastructure elements (pumping structures, utility lines, internal roads)
• Species production records and planting stock information

Field verification included direct observation of irrigation canals adjacent to the nursery, existing shelterbelt systems, production beds, soil surface conditions, and internal access routes.

The site visit confirmed that the Termiz Forest Nursery is operational but structurally in need of technical upgrading, particularly in relation to:

• Irrigation system modernization
• Engineered drainage planning
• Soil and water quality diagnostics
• Production system optimization
• Microclimate stabilization measures

The findings of this field mission constitute the technical basis for the present First Assessment and Feasibility Report under the RESILAND CA+ framework and inform the subsequent design and specification phases.

Field observations confirm that the nursery area is located on flat, low-gradient alluvial terrain directly adjacent to an operational irrigation canal, forming a classic lowland irrigation-supported production environment. The presence of a continuously flowing canal with moderate turbidity indicates structurally available surface water supply, which represents a major operational advantage. However, the canal banks show vegetation encroachment and localized edge instability, indicating that bank stabilization and engineered intake structures will be required to prevent sediment inflow and erosion-related failure.

The irrigation canal proximity must therefore be considered both an asset and a structural risk. A controlled pumping unit with sediment filtration will be essential to prevent clogging of drip or micro-irrigation systems during modernization.

The terrain within the nursery parcel is generally flat; however, field images reveal subtle micro-relief variation, informal shallow drainage cuts, and localized depressions. In such flat alluvial systems, even minor unevenness can generate:

Localized water stagnation
Uneven irrigation distribution
Salt concentration zones under high evaporation
Surface crust formation

Accordingly, laser leveling and engineered drainage design should be treated as mandatory pre-modernization interventions rather than optional improvements.

The existing pine shelterbelt stands (Pinus spp.) form a well-established perimeter and internal microclimatic buffer. These mature trees provide:

Wind protection
Reduced evapotranspiration
Partial shading
Microclimate stabilization

The white-painted lower trunks suggest ongoing basic management practices. However, understory vegetation is unmanaged in places, litter accumulation is significant, and drainage trenches within the tree rows appear informal. These shelterbelts are a major structural asset and should be rehabilitated, cleaned, and integrated into the master layout rather than removed.

Several images show structured experimental or labeled research plots under pine canopy. The signage indicates collaboration with Tashkent State Agrarian University (Toshkent Davlat Agrar Universiteti) and forestry research activities. This confirms that the site already functions as:

A production nursery
A research and demonstration platform
A technically structured but partially outdated system

Soil surface conditions indicate compaction in open production areas, visible crusting, and low incorporation of organic matter. Although no obvious salt crust is visible at the surface, this does not eliminate the possibility of subsurface salinity accumulation, especially given the irrigation canal proximity and high evaporative demand typical of Surxondaryo lowlands.

During the field mission, a series of site photographs were taken within the Termiz Forest Nursery to document on-ground operational conditions and existing functional assets. The photos confirm the presence of a designated research and demonstration area established under a mature shelterbelt stand (Pinus spp.), including a clearly visible institutional signboard of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan and Tashkent State Agrarian University (TDAU). The signboard indicates that the nursery site has hosted applied forestry/landscape research activities, demonstrating institutional linkages beyond routine seedling production.

The images further show multiple small, labeled experimental plots arranged systematically beneath the shelterbelt canopy. The plot markers suggest structured monitoring and trial management (e.g., species/provenance testing or cultivation method comparison). This provides strong evidence that the nursery already functions not only as a production unit but also as a platform for field-based experimentation, learning, and demonstration, which is directly aligned with RESILAND CA+ objectives related to standardization, capacity building, and climate-adaptive production development.

From an operational perspective, the shelterbelt area provides microclimatic advantages—notably wind buffering and partial shading—which are highly relevant in Termiz’s extreme summer heat regime. However, the same photos also indicate ground litter accumulation (pine needles), limited understory management, and uneven surface conditions, which may constrain uniform irrigation distribution, increase localized dryness in root zones, and complicate plot maintenance if not addressed. These observations support the recommendation that shelterbelt zones should be retained and rehabilitated, with improved cleaning, understory control, and integration into drainage and circulation planning.

Overall, the photographed area represents a strategic institutional asset for modernization: it demonstrates existing research engagement, provides favorable microclimate functions, and can be strengthened as a formal demonstration/training block during Phase 5–7 implementation (design validation, operational training, and adaptive species screening under lowland heat and salinity risk conditions).

Therefore, comprehensive soil laboratory testing (pH, EC, SAR, texture, infiltration rate, and nutrient profile) remains essential prior to final infrastructure design.

Drainage trenches visible within tree stands appear shallow and manually formed. While they facilitate some runoff, they are insufficient for long-term salinity control under high irrigation loads. A designed subsurface and surface drainage network will be required to prevent waterlogging and secondary salinization.

Access conditions appear functional but basic. Dirt road infrastructure suggests potential seasonal accessibility constraints under wet conditions. Power lines and nearby utility structures indicate that electrical connectivity is available, reducing modernization costs.

From a hydrological perspective, the flowing canal demonstrates reliable supply at the time of visit. However, sediment load appears moderate, reinforcing the necessity for:

Intake filtration
Seasonal allocation verification
Backup storage (buffer reservoir construction recommended)

In summary, the site presents strong structural advantages:

Reliable canal-based water access
Flat terrain suitable for mechanization
Established shelterbelt microclimate
Existing production layout
Research integration potential
Utility access

The principal technical risks identified include:

Micro-topographic drainage inefficiency
Soil compaction and crusting
Potential subsoil salinity
Sediment intake from open canal
Informal drainage infrastructure

Overall assessment indicates that the nursery is technically suitable for modernization and upgrading, provided that the following measures are implemented:

Laser-assisted land leveling
Engineered drainage system design
Modern drip or micro-sprinkler irrigation installation
Sediment-controlled pumping infrastructure
Soil and water quality testing
Shelterbelt rehabilitation and structured understory management

With these interventions, the site can be transformed into a climate-resilient, irrigation-efficient model nursery aligned with RESILAND CA+ objectives and international best-practice standards for semi-arid lowland production systems.

1.4.2 Water Resources and Hydrogeological Feasibility

The Termiz Forest Nursery is located in Termiz District, Surxondaryo Region, at approximately 37°18’43” N – 67°23’15” E and ~310 m a.s.l., within the flat irrigated lowlands of the lower Amu Darya basin. Field observations confirm that an open irrigation canal runs immediately adjacent to the nursery boundary, providing a readily accessible surface-water source for nursery operations. This proximity offers a significant operational advantage for modernization, enabling reliable abstraction and distribution to high-efficiency irrigation systems (drip or micro-sprinkler) provided that adequate intake control and filtration are installed to manage sediment loads.

At the same time, the canal-adjacent setting increases hydro-environmental risks typical of lowland irrigated plains, including localized waterlogging in micro-depressions due to canal seepage and irrigation return flows, seasonal groundwater fluctuations, and potential secondary soil salinization under high summer evapotranspiration. Accordingly, sustainable upgrading of the Termiz Forest Nursery should integrate: (i) engineered surface/subsurface drainage, (ii) irrigation scheduling and zonal management to prevent over-application, (iii) continuous water-quality monitoring (EC, pH, salinity), and (iv) properly designed intake and filtration systems to ensure long-term performance of pressurized irrigation infrastructure.

1.4.3 Energy Infrastructure and Accessibility

The nursery site is located in Termiz District (Termiz tumani), Surxondaryo Region (Surxondaryo viloyati) within the irrigated lowland agricultural landscape of the lower Amu Darya basin, at approximately 37°18’43” N – 67°23’15” E and an elevation of about 310 meters above sea level.

Electricity supply is available through the regional distribution network, enabling the operation of essential nursery infrastructure, including:

• Irrigation pumping systems connected to nearby irrigation canal water sources
• Nursery service buildings and operational facilities
• Potential greenhouse structures (issiqxona) for controlled seedling production
• Lighting, storage, and administrative functions

Reliable electricity supply is particularly important during the summer growing season, when irrigation demand is highest due to extremely high temperatures and evapotranspiration rates typical of the Termiz region.

Accessibility to the nursery is facilitated by local agricultural road connections linking the site to the Termiz district road network. The relatively flat terrain of the Amu Darya lowland plains ensures year-round vehicle access for nursery staff, equipment transport, and seedling distribution.

The presence of nearby irrigation canals further enhances operational feasibility by providing direct access to surface water resources required for nursery irrigation systems. However, effective operation of pumping equipment and irrigation infrastructure remains dependent on stable electrical supply and proper maintenance of water intake systems.

No major geographical or topographical constraints to nursery modernization were identified. The flat terrain, existing basic infrastructure, and proximity to irrigation water sources provide a suitable foundation for upgrading the Termiz Forest Nursery into a more efficient and climate-resilient forestry production facility.

1.4.4 Integrated Strategic Conclusion of the Field Assessment

The field mission conducted to the Termiz Forest Nursery under the Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise confirms that the site presents a technically viable and strategically important location for the upgrading and modernization of a state forestry nursery within the framework of the Uzbekistan Resilient Landscapes Restoration Project (RESILAND CA+).

Direct field observations, supported by consultations with the Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise and review of available site documentation, demonstrate that the nursery is already operational but currently functions under a technically outdated production system that does not fully correspond to modern climate-resilient nursery standards. Nevertheless, the site possesses several structural advantages that make it highly suitable for rehabilitation and upgrading rather than relocation.

The nursery is situated on a flat alluvial terrain within the irrigated lowland landscape of the lower Amu Darya basin. The absence of significant slope variation provides favorable conditions for mechanized nursery operations, structured production zoning, and installation of irrigation infrastructure with limited earthworks. At the same time, the flat terrain increases dependence on engineered drainage and precise land leveling to avoid water stagnation, uneven irrigation distribution, and potential salinity accumulation under high evaporation conditions.

One of the most significant structural advantages of the site is the presence of an operational irrigation canal directly adjacent to the nursery boundary. This canal provides a reliable surface water source for irrigation purposes and represents a strong foundation for the introduction of modern pressurized irrigation systems such as drip or micro-sprinkler technologies. However, the open canal system also introduces operational considerations including sediment load, bank stability, and potential seepage effects influencing groundwater levels. Consequently, modernization efforts must include engineered intake structures, pumping units, and filtration systems to ensure the long-term functionality of irrigation infrastructure.

Field inspection also confirmed the presence of established pine shelterbelts surrounding parts of the nursery. These mature windbreak structures constitute an important microclimatic asset, providing protection against seasonal winds, reducing evapotranspiration stress, and contributing to localized shading conditions beneficial for seedling development. With proper rehabilitation and integration into the future master layout, these shelterbelts can play a significant role in stabilizing the nursery microclimate and improving overall production resilience.

At the same time, several technical constraints were identified during the field assessment. These include localized soil compaction, surface crust formation in production areas, informal drainage channels, and the potential risk of subsurface salinity accumulation associated with irrigation-dependent lowland environments. Although no clear salt crust was visible at the soil surface during the visit, comprehensive laboratory testing of soil and water quality remains necessary to confirm salinity status and guide irrigation management strategies.

Infrastructure conditions at the site indicate the presence of basic operational elements such as access roads, electrical supply lines, and pumping structures. These existing utilities significantly reduce baseline investment requirements for modernization. However, internal circulation routes, drainage structures, and irrigation systems require systematic redesign to meet the efficiency and reliability standards required for climate-adaptive nursery operations.

Considering the environmental context of Termiz district—characterized by extreme summer heat, high evapotranspiration rates, irrigation dependency, and salinity-sensitive soils—the long-term success of the nursery will depend on the integration of climate-resilient production systems. These systems must emphasize water-use efficiency, drainage performance, microclimate stabilization, and the selection of heat- and salinity-tolerant species adapted to semi-arid lowland conditions.

Overall, the field mission confirms that the Termiz Forest Nursery possesses the essential physical and infrastructural conditions necessary for transformation into a modernized, climate-resilient forestry nursery under the RESILAND CA+ framework. With appropriate engineering interventions—including precision land leveling, installation of efficient irrigation systems, development of engineered drainage infrastructure, rehabilitation of shelterbelt systems, and systematic soil and water diagnostics—the site can evolve into a strategic lowland model nursery supporting restoration and landscape management efforts across Surkhandarya Region and the wider lower Amu Darya basin

1.5 Conclusion of First Assessment & Feasibility Report

This First Assessment and Feasibility Report has evaluated the Termiz Forest Nursery under the Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise within the framework of the Uzbekistan Resilient Landscapes Restoration Project (RESILAND CA+). The assessment examined the nursery’s strategic relevance, environmental and climatic context, site-specific biophysical conditions, existing operational infrastructure, and technical feasibility for modernization and upgrading.

According to information provided during the field mission and consultations with the Surkhandarya State Forestry Enterprise, the currently operational nursery area is approximately 8.2 hectares (ha). It was further indicated that the nursery has potential for future expansion, as an additional forested parcel of approximately 8 hectares located directly opposite the existing nursery area could potentially be integrated into the nursery infrastructure in subsequent development phases.

In the initial stage, the existing 8.2 ha nursery area is considered sufficient for the establishment of a local-scale forestry nursery, primarily serving restoration and greening activities within Termiz district and surrounding areas. However, considering Termiz’s strategic geographical location, the nursery’s proximity to the main road corridor, and the availability of adjacent forest land suitable for expansion, it is considered feasible that the nursery could be expanded into a larger regional production facility in the future if operational demand increases.

The analysis confirms that the Termiz Forest Nursery occupies a strategically important position within Uzbekistan’s southern lowland landscape restoration system. Located within the irrigated plains of the lower Amu Darya basin, the nursery operates under environmental conditions characterized by extreme summer heat, very high evapotranspiration rates, structural irrigation dependency, and potential soil salinity risks. These conditions clearly differentiate Termiz from foothill nursery systems and highlight the need for specialized nursery production strategies adapted to semi-arid lowland ecosystems.

From a technical perspective, the field assessment demonstrates that the site possesses several structural advantages supporting long-term nursery operation and modernization. These include flat terrain suitable for mechanized nursery operations, direct access to irrigation water through an adjacent canal system, the presence of established shelterbelt vegetation providing microclimatic protection, and existing basic infrastructure including access roads and electricity supply. Collectively, these conditions create a strong operational foundation for modernization without requiring relocation or major land restructuring.

At the same time, the field assessment identified several technical and environmental constraints that must be addressed to ensure sustainable nursery development. These include localized drainage inefficiencies associated with flat alluvial terrain, soil compaction and surface crust formation in existing production areas, the potential risk of subsurface salinity accumulation under irrigation conditions, and sediment management requirements related to canal-based water abstraction. Such challenges are typical of irrigation-dependent lowland production systems and can be effectively mitigated through appropriate engineering design and improved management practices.

In order to transform the Termiz Forest Nursery into a modern, climate-resilient forestry nursery, several priority technical measures are required. These include the introduction of high-efficiency irrigation technologies (drip or micro-sprinkler systems), the installation of engineered surface and subsurface drainage infrastructure, the implementation of precision land leveling, and the rehabilitation and integration of existing shelterbelt systems for microclimate stabilization. In addition, systematic soil and water quality monitoring programs should be established to manage salinity risks and ensure sustainable irrigation management.

Equally important is the adoption of nursery production strategies specifically adapted to the extreme climatic conditions of southern Uzbekistan. Species selection should prioritize heat tolerance, drought resilience, and moderate salinity tolerance, while nursery production systems should incorporate containerized seedling technologies, shade management structures, and wind protection measures in order to maintain seedling quality under summer temperatures frequently exceeding 40–45°C.

Overall, the findings of this assessment confirm that the Termiz Forest Nursery is technically suitable for upgrading and integration into the national network of climate-resilient forestry nurseries envisioned under the RESILAND CA+ framework. With targeted investments in irrigation efficiency, drainage engineering, microclimate management, and modern nursery production systems, the site can evolve into a strategic lowland production hub supporting landscape restoration, agroforestry development, and climate adaptation initiatives across Surkhandarya Region and the wider lower Amu Darya basin.

The completion of this First Assessment and Feasibility Report therefore establishes the technical and environmental foundation required to proceed to the next stage of the consultancy process. Subject to approval by the RESILAND CA+ Project Implementation Unit (PIU), the project will advance to Phase 5 – Nursery Design, during which detailed engineering designs, technical specifications, and operational layout plans for the modernization of the Termiz Forest Nursery will be prepared.

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Phase 4: Termiz Forest Nursery

Introduction